Gambles to Game Changers: Who Will be Crowned MVP

The 2024 NFL season has featured some incredible and historic quarterback play, particularly from the 2018 draft class. Top-10 picks Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold have found new life on different teams, proving they can be capable starters in the right situation. Then there’s Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, the final two quarterbacks taken in the 2018 first round. They have been the two best in their class and are undoubtedly the top two quarterbacks this season, both having historic career years. As the NFL season concludes, one major question remains: Who is the MVP?

What Does MVP Mean?

The MVP award is given to the most valuable player in the league. A common misconception in these discussions is that the MVP automatically goes to the player with the best statistics. While stats play a significant role, they are not the sole criterion. The award focuses on a player’s statistical performance along with their impact on team success.

Criteria

This article will analyze the race between these two outstanding players using the following criteria:

• Stats

• Win/loss record and seeding

• MVP moments

• Performances in losses

• Performance vs. playoff teams

• Supporting cast

Now that the criteria is set, who deserves to be the MVP?

Stats

Jackson and Allen have played at an elite level, both having their best seasons. Allen has cut down on turnovers, while Jackson has set career highs in passing. Below are their stats through Week 18, along with their league rankings:

Lamar Jackson:

• 66.7% completion (12th)

• 4,172 passing yards (6th)

• 41 passing touchdowns (T-2nd)

• 4 interceptions (70th)

• 119.6 passer rating (1st, 4th all-time)

• 915 rushing yards (1st among QBs)

• 4 rushing touchdowns (9th among QBs)

• 6 fumbles (T-3rd), 4 lost (1st)

Josh Allen:

• 63.6% completion (24th)

• 3,731 passing yards (14th)

• 28 passing touchdowns (T-7th)

• 6 interceptions (T-78th)

• 101.4 passer rating (8th)

• 531 rushing yards (5th among QBs)

• 12 rushing touchdowns (2nd among QBs)

• 0 fumbles (T-1st)

Record & Seeding

In 2023, Jackson led the Ravens to a league-best 13-4 record while Allen had stronger individual stats, but 18 interceptions. This year, the roles are reversed. Allen led the Bills to a 13-4 record, winning the AFC East for the fifth straight year and securing the No. 2 seed. Jackson led the Ravens to a 12-5 record, clinching the AFC North and earning the No. 3 seed. However, in their head-to-head matchup in Week 4, Jackson and the Ravens dominated Allen’s Bills, winning 35-10.

MVP Moments

Beyond numbers, MVP candidates must have defining moments that showcase their impact. Here are some of the key performances for both players:

Lamar Jackson:

• 3-touchdown performance vs. Bills

• 348-yard, 4-touchdown overtime win vs. Cincinnati Bengals

• 5-touchdown win vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers in primetime

• 84% passing, 3-touchdown win vs. Denver Broncos

• 290-yard, 4-touchdown win vs. Bengals in primetime

• 84% passing, 290-yard, 5-touchdown win vs. New York Giants

• 207-yard, 3-touchdown win vs. Pittsburgh Steelers for division lead

• Broke Michael Vick’s all-time QB rushing record (6,110 yards)

• Second-best single-season passer rating of all time

Josh Allen:

• 7-game win streak after losing two straight

• 317-total yard, 2-touchdown win vs. Kansas City Chiefs (Chiefs’ only loss)

• 4-touchdown win vs. San Francisco 49ers in primetime, becoming the first QB to throw, run, and catch a touchdown in one game

• 3-passing, 3-rushing touchdown game vs. Los Angeles Rams

• 430-total yard, 4-touchdown win vs. Detroit Lions

• Tied Bills franchise record for career rushing touchdowns (65)

Performances in Losses

When a team has an MVP, they don’t lose much as that player elevates his play and the teammates around him. Even when they lose, that special talent tends to give their team a fighting chance. Here’s how their stats match up in losses.

Lamar Jackson (5 losses):

• 1,253 passing yards, 59.9% completion, 7 touchdowns, 2 interceptions

• 338 rushing yards

• Average: 250.6 passing yards, 67.6 rushing yards, 1.4 touchdowns per game

Josh Allen (3 losses):

• 653 passing yards, 49% completion, 4 touchdowns, 1 interception

• 157 rushing yards, 3 rushing touchdowns

• Average: 217.7 passing yards, 52.3 rushing yards, 2.3 total touchdowns per game

The Ravens are 1-5 this year when Jackson has a passer rating of below 114, with his highest passer rating in a loss being 101.8. The Bills hold a record of 4-2 when Allen has a passer rating under 100, but just a 2-2 record when under 80. Although Jackson has been more efficient in these games, Allen still scores at a high rate like Jackson, both being responsible for 7 touchdowns.

Performance vs. Playoff Teams

Both players have faced playoff teams this year due to having a first-place schedule. When it comes down to winning a Super Bowl, a team needs their leader to step up the most against playoff teams. Here’s how the two have faired against playoff teams this year.

Lamar Jackson:

• Faced 10 playoff teams

• 7-3 record

• 2,309 passing yards, 67.5% completion, 22 touchdowns, 3 interceptions

• 521 rushing yards, 3 rushing touchdowns

Josh Allen:

• Faced 5 playoff teams

• 2-3 record

• 1,277 passing yards, 57% completion, 7 touchdowns, 1 interception

• 280 rushing yards, 6 rushing touchdowns

Jackson ran the gauntlet against playoff teams and has been consistently great, while Allen has stepped up against the two best teams in the league and delivered in MVP fashion. At a closer look, Jackson played the entire AFC playoff picture this season alone, going 5-2 while recording 1,818 total yards and 17 touchdowns. While Jackson has the higher volume and better numbers, Allen’s two wins were against the AFC and NFC first-seed teams the Chiefs and Lions, recording 747 total yards and 6 touchdowns. With the race being this close, the last aspect to dissect is the teams built around them. 

Supporting Cast

Allen has done more with less. Allen has led his team to the second seed after losing star receiver Stefon Diggs in the offseason. The Ravens had key losses from the roster but made great additions. This resulted in the Ravens having eight Pro Bowlers compared to the Bills’ one, not including the quarterbacks. As players have dropped out from the event, Bills running back James Cook and center Connor McGovern have been named Pro Bowl replacements. While this looks lopsided, Pro Bowls don’t hold as much weight in measuring a player’s greatness compared to All-Pros. The Ravens had five All-Pros, three first-teamers, and two second-teamers not including Jackson, while Allen was the lone All-Pro for the Bills, making second-team behind Jackson. The idea is that Allen has near to no help while Jackson’s MVP case tends to be in question due his supporting roster.

The biggest knock on Jackson’s MVP case is running back Derrick Henry, who ranks second in rushing with 1,921 yards and 16 touchdowns. When looking at the tape, Henry had an amazing season because of the attention Jackson draws to himself as a running threat. Some argue the Ravens would still be a playoff team without Jackson due to Henry’s dominance. However, Henry himself credits his success to Jackson’s presence.

In comparison, Bills’ running back James Cook, just cracked over 1,009 rushing yards. The yards don’t jump out as elite numbers, but he was a scoring machine as he recorded 16 rushing touchdowns, tied for first in the league, and 18 scrimmage touchdowns, finishing second, tied with Henry. Even with this impressive campaign, Cook wasn’t selected for the Pro Bowl until being called on as a replacement. Cook was a key piece for the Bills offense and success while taking the pressure of hero ball off of Allen.

The Ravens have a case for a better receiving group, but the gap is not as far as most think. Per Pro Football Reference, Jackson has had 28 passes dropped compared to Allen’s 20, while Jackson has 69 bad throws to Allen’s 86. Even when their receivers make the catches, Jackson has 2,085 of his 4,172 passing yards be after the catch, whereas Allen has 2,005 of his 3,731 yards be after the catch. Jackson’s number one receiver, Zay Flowers, finished with 74 catches on 116 targets for 1,059 yards and 4 touchdowns which earned him Pro Bowl honors. In comparison, Allen’s number one, Khalil Shakir, finished with 76 catches on 100 targets for 821 yards and 4 touchdowns. While the depiction is that Flowers is beyond a better receiver than Shakir, both had similar production on similar targets. Shakir was also third in the league in yards after the catch with 597, compared to Flowers’ 463, which has him ranked 24th. Jackson looks to have better receivers from the eye test, but the gap as far as struggles are not that different.

The same can be said for the offensive line, as both have a good line. Allen may have the case for a better line as he’s been pressured 88 times compared to Jackson’s 107. They both have about the same average time in the pocket with 2.4-2.5 seconds. They both scrambled plenty of times as Jackson has 45 scrambles to Allen’s 41. Even as dynamic dual threat quarterbacks, they couldn’t always escape pressure. Allen has taken 37 hits while Jackson took 31, but Jackson was sacked 23 times while Allen was sacked 14 times. The case for better offensive line could sway in Allen’s favor, but the reality is that both make their line better with their escapability in the pocket.

While Jackson has a statistically better-supporting cast, the difference in impact is debated, with both having under-the-radar players making plays when needed most.

The MVP Is…

After reviewing all factors, the best solution may be co-MVPs, as there hasn’t been a closer race as far as voting since 2005. The NFL has done it before, with Brett Favre and Barry Sanders in 1997 and Peyton Manning and Steve McNair in 2003. Jackson and Allen would be the third pair, and it wouldn’t diminish either player’s legacy, with co-MVP being a rare feat. To this day, Manning still gets credited with his five MVPS with no question. If it came down to one, Jackson is deserving of MVP as he’s put up better historic numbers while having one of the best seasons from a quarterback, let alone the best dual-threat season after starting the season 0-2 to then win the division with a difficult schedule. However, both quarterbacks have had outstanding seasons that cannot be ignored. Jackson and Allen headline their 2018 draft class and have both had amazing seasons in which neither can be ignored for what they did. In one of the closest MVP races in recent history, awarding both would be a fitting conclusion.